Strategic Insights No 15
The Sirius Star: Have pirates bitten off more than they can chew?
Karsten von Hoesslin
On 15 November 2008, a new record was set as Somali pirates captured one of the largest ships in the world: the VLCC Sirius Star. Although a prized bounty, Risk Intelligence Senior Analyst Karsten von Hoesslin addresses the geographical and logistical challenges the pirates will face when dealing with the massive tanker as well as the increasing threat of interference from shore.
The impact of narco-trafficking and interdiction on shipping: A Caribbean case study
Timothy Martin
Smuggling on the high seas is rife and in addition to the movement of illegal arms and humans, narco-trafficking is an emerging threat in the Atlantic Ocean. Timothy Martin addresses the issue of narco-trafficking and the challenges for successful interdictions on the high seas using the Caribbean Sea and the United States Coast Guard as a case study.
Catching the tiger by its tail: Is the end of Sri Lanka's civil war in sight?
Karsten von Hoesslin
The Sri Lankan government claims that the fall of the Tamil Tiger headquarters is imminent and that regaining control of the rebel held north-east of the island is about to become a reality. Although the government has had numerous successes both on land and at sea, Senior Analyst Karsten von Hoesslin warns of the likely asymmetrical war that will continue once conventional military operations end.
The Ship Security Alert System: Is it working?
Capt. Rakish Suppiah
The role of the Ship Security Alert System is increasingly being debated as vessels continue to face hijackings and piracy attacks in global hotspots. Capt. Rakish Suppiah, Senior Analyst for the Malaysian Institute of Maritime Affairs, assesses the role of the Ship Security Alert System to determine if it is in fact an asset to securing vessels at sea.
Strategic Insights No 14
Vietnam: An emerging piracy zone?
Karsten von Hoesslin
Piracy in South East Asia remains a very fluid activity typically conducted by criminal organisations or opportunistic robbers for financial gain. While the Malacca Straits remain relatively quiet, other areas appear to be re-emerging as piracy problem zones, such as Vietnam. Senior Analyst Karsten von Hoesslin examines piracy incidents occurring in Vietnamese waters and how crew level anti-piracy measures can help prevent incidents based on trends in Vietnam.
Assessing Russia's evolving naval strategy
James Bosbotinis
It is without a doubt that the Russian Federation indents to once again project its power over the oceans. From recent military operations in Georgia to the deployment of a warship for anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden, the Russian Navy appears to be re-emerging as a naval power with a renewed agenda spanning the seven seas. Independent Analyst James Bosbotinis examines Russia’s future naval strategy and the whether its role is to be seen as Western naval coalition partner or a power balancer.
Naval protection of merchant shipping in the Gulf of Aden
Dirk Steffen
In light of the piracy surge in the strategic sea lines of the Gulf of Aden, the maritime community has considered the possibility of implementing convoys to protect shipping. Although international support to suppress piracy in the area is at its highest, convoying in the Gulf of Aden is not as easy as it looks. Dirk Steffen examines the advantages and limitations of convoys and the feasibility of a naval coalition taking on the task.
The Proliferation Security Initiative: Progress and prospects
Guy Wilson-Roberts
After 5 years since its inception and despite its low profile in recent years, the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) continues to function as a multilateral exercise for like-minded states intent on preventing weapons proliferation. Dr. Guy Wilson-Roberts explores the current state of the PSI and whether progress has been made in securing the seas as well as what is in store for the initiative in the future.
Strategic Insights No 13
Returning to the prospects of private security in Somalia: Will history repeat itself?
Karsten von Hoesslin
This article returns to an age-old question concerning the feasibility of private security companies operating in Somalia in a capacity building manner. Most recently, French firm SECOPEX intended to stabilise the African Horn’s maritime waters and Senior Analyst Karsten von Hoesslin debates whether history will repeat itself.
The Malay-Muslim terrorist insurgency in southern Thailand: Evolving dynamics, outside involvement and criminal dimensions
Peter Chalk
The ongoing insurgency in southern Thailand continues to threaten the nation’s security and has the potential to destabilise the region, particularly northern Malaysia and the Malacca Straits. The RAND Corporation’s Dr. Peter Chalk examines the insurgency in detail and its implications on the maritime supply chain.
Maritime risks in the Niger Delta: Patterns, trends & countermeasures
Dirk Steffen
The security situation in Nigeria is not improving. Dirk Steffen addresses the numerous insecurity issues of the Delta and how stakeholder-level mitigation and countermeasures can improve security at the private level.
Fortifying the energy supply chain
Nazary Khalid
The Malaysian Institute for Maritime Affairs’ Nazary Khalid returns to the significant issue of energy security and the fortification of world energy flows. This article addresses how energy security is affected by both insurgency conflicts and terrorist agendas as well as major safety issues.
Strategic Insights No 12
Seizing the opportunity: Evidence of syndicated piracy near Anambas Islands in light of limited patrols
Karsten von Hoesslin
A unique trend is developing north-east of the Malacca Straits, which appears to be a sign of organised piracy where ships are targeted off the remote Anambas Islands. This article showcases that patrolling only the core waterways such as the Malacca Straits can lead to an increase in other areas in light of the fluidity of South East Asian piracy.
The current terrorism threat against shipping
Atle Mesoy
A recent internet posting on a series of Islamic websites has reinvigorated debate on the implications of terrorist attacks against shipping. Senior Analyst Atle Mesoy examines the implications and practicality of such threats and their reference geographically to the Red Sea and Horn of Africa.
Philippines maritime security revisited
Karsten von Hoesslin
Although the Malacca Straits dominate the media attention in maritime South East Asia, the Philippines has its fair share of maritime security issues. Senior Analyst Karsten von Hoesslin revisits the current trends in the Philippines and addresses the evolving security issues as well as governmental shortcomings.
The stowaway dilemma: Global & national policies
Rakish Suppiah
The issue of stowaways remains a key concern for maritime stakeholders. Analyst Rakish Suppiah examines both global and national conventions on stowaways and examines where global trends will likely outpace the conventional shortcomings on stowaways.
Strategic Insights No 11
Indonesia: Signs of maritime security improvement should be acknowledged
Karsten von Hoesslin
In the past decade, nowhere has modern day piracy received more media attention then in South East Asia. Indonesia in particular was seen as a weak state unable to counter maritime security threats and with little interest in regional cooperation. This article examines how Indonesia’s approach to tackling piracy and other maritime security issues is positively changing in light of committing to naval re-modernisation, fostering cooperation and accepting external assistance in the form of asset donations.
The destabilisation of Puntland: The decline of Somalia's strategic semi-autonomous region and its implications for maritime security
Karsten von Hoesslin, Stig Jarle Hansen, & Hans Tino Hansen
Somalia has once again made headlines with a series of high-profile hijackings, and despite military escorted aid shipments, the presence of coalition war ships in the region, and a dramatic counter-piracy operation conducted by the French, long-range attacks have increased off the northern coast of Somalia’s Puntland region in the Gulf of Aden. This article examines the increasingly unstable Puntland region and what its declining security status represents for supply chain stakeholders transiting the region.
Splintering from ideology: How insurgent leaders are turning to organised crime and complicating solutions for the government of Nigeria
Karsten von Hoesslin
Nigeria has moved into the number one spot for piracy attacks as the insurgency continues to hinder oil production and threatens vessels in its waterways and offshore. However, more concerning is the pattern that Nigeria’s insurgency leadership is increasingly leaning towards organised crime and various elements are splintering to form their own crime syndicates with little interest in their original political ideology for greater revenue distribution. This article examines the implications this will have on the government’s intentions to bring peace to the Delta.
The Automatic Identification System (AIS) and its role in maritime security/safety
Rakish Suppiah
The mandated Automatic Identification System (AIS) is currently being phased in and raises a number of security questions beyond its role as an anti-collision system and eventual search and rescue utility. Rakish Suppiah’s article assesses the role that the mandated AIS can play in coastal state security as well as weighing in the benefits and limitations to its overall usage.
Strategic Insights No 10
US maritime security policy revisited
Robbin Laird
Nowhere is the subject of maritime security a more prevalent issue than in the United States. In this article, Dr. Robbin Laird examines the future of American thinking with respect to homeland security in light of the upcoming election where a series of scenarios reveal the interconnectedness of America’s approach to security overall.
Towards a European maritime security policy?
Mattias Wengelin
The years 2006 and 2007 were unique for the European Union in that it began to debate maritime security seriously and attempted to create a more cohesive stance for its member states. The release of the Green Paper and creation of FRONTEX are two examples of Europe’s desire to implement Europe-wide measures and participate in international proposals. Researcher Mattias Wengelin from the University of Lund addresses these issues in the feature article.
The maritime operations of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE): The Sea Tigers and Sea Pigeons
Peter Chalk
Dr. Peter Chalk from the Rand Corporation examines in detail the ongoing civil war in Sri Lanka and what role the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)’s sea wing plays in the conflict. Despite recent defeats, the LTTE continues to prove that its mastery of the sea as both battleground and sea lane for logistics and resupply should not be underestimated.
Maritime insurance for piracy or terrorism: Drawing a line in the water
Patrick Donner
World Maritime University Associate Dean Patrick Donner sheds light on the complicated subject of marine insurance and more specifically war risk insurance. The article examines the act of piracy and its recent relationship with war risk insurance weighing both the pros and cons of its inclusion, sighting contemporary examples.