Strategic Insights No 28

Horn of Africa special issue

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Developments in pirate trends and tactics

Karsten von Hoesslin

Piracy off the Horn of Africa remains vibrant, and most importantly, dynamic and extremely fluid. Counter-piracy efforts at the high end are becoming more sophisticated - and expensive. Fewer skiffs used in attacks suggests attrition is taking place, but pirates are now threatening a higher level of violence. This article takes a look at the current situation. 

Holy War on the Horn

Atle Mesøy

Atle Mesøy looks at the implications of a warming of relations between Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Somalia's Islamic movement Al Shebab. This has security implications and Mesøy notes that Al Shebab could provide sanctuary to AQAP for launching maritime attacks in the Gulf of Aden, and also that improved relations could radicalise Al Shebab. 

Scenarios for the future: Al Shebab and piracy

Stig Jarle Hansen

Al Shebab has up until recently avoided major engagements with pirates. However, in 2010, some of the variables that made cooperation troublesome have changed. This article covers four possible scenarios for greater involvement by Al Shebab in piracy. The highest likelihood is that Al Shebab maintains its current stance, which puts it mostly in opposition to piracy. There is a moderate probability, however, that fragmentation in the organisation could lead to some factions engaging in piracy. 

East Africa piracy update

Nis Leerskov Mathiesen

The waters off Tanzania and Kenya are currently just as dangerous as the rest of the pirate hunting grounds in the Indian Ocean. With a limited international presence, pirates are now seeing new opportunities in this area. If pirates are able to establish forward operating bases, this will increase their presence and raise the threat level. Already, though, ships transiting the area should be taking the same precautions as elsewhere in the region. 

The Somali influence on Kenyan maritime security

Stig Jarle Hansen

Somalia and Kenya have had a troubled relationship since Kenyan independence, partly because of Somali claims on the Kenyan north-eastern territory. Stig Jarle Hansen looks at the problems, including a maritime border dispute and the potential for Al Shebab to destabilise the internal situation or for pirates to threaten Kenyan maritime tourism. 

Strategic Insights No 27

South Asia special issue

Piracy in Bangladesh: The forgotten hotspot

Karsten von Hoesslin and Nis Leerskov Mathiesen

Bangladesh is often overlooked for its security threats with the focus on piracy typically being elsewhere – like the Niger Delta or the Horn of Africa. Currently a threat predominantly to local maritime operations, this article from Nis Leerskov Mathiesen and Karsten von Hoesslin of Risk Intelligence argues that piracy in the region is sustaining a criminal culture and infrastructure that could start to look to international shipping as a source of profit, following the example set by pirates elsewhere.
 

Maritime and port security in Pakistan

Mathias Hagstrøm

International media attention typically focusses on the threat from Islamic extremist groups like Al Qaeda and the Taliban operating inland and in the Afghanistan border areas. According to Mathias Hagstrøm from Roskilde University, Pakistan’s ports remain vulnerable to one-off attacks by terrorists or from a sustained campaign from insurgency groups in Balochistan province. Improving port and maritime security in the country goes hand-in-hand with greater trade and investment, which will boost port traffic and allow for improved security infrastructure as well as giving coastal communities a greater stake in port operations and the broader maritime industry.
 

Indian port security reforms

Andy Collier

The Mumbai terrorist attack in 2008 had a profound impact on Indian thinking about maritime security, according to Andrew Collier from Risk Intelligence. A national audit of port security was instigated, which saw improved infrastructure such as container scanning equipment and a boost for security agencies. But, as Collier notes, progress has been slow to date due to India’s bureaucratic approach to reform. Also, the reforms themselves have the potential to increase the costs of doing business at local ports.
 

The Sea Pigeons: A criminal enterprise in the making

Peter Chalk

Dr. Peter Chalk from RAND looks at the Sea Pigeons, the Tamil Tigers’ maritime smuggling group. The Sri Lankan government won its insurgency struggle against the Tigers, but the Sea Pigeons remain as a viable smuggling operation. Chalk sees one of the possible futures for the Sea Pigeons is the group evolving into a criminal syndicate involved in the smuggling of weapons, contraband, people and drugs. As one threat in the region disappears, another may well emerge.
 

Strategic Insights No 26

Arm your mind, not your ship: Thinking about better anti-piracy tactics

Dirk Steffen

With Somali piracy in the headlines, debate now ranges around whether merchant vessels should be armed, or given some form of armed protection teams. Dirk Steffen from Risk Intelligence argues instead that “many stakeholders within the merchant marine community are losing sight of what, on a shipboard level, is really needed: a coherent understanding of, and training in, anti-piracy tactics.” Piracy is a dynamic tactical challenge for a seafarer and a sound tactical concept can minimise the chances that a merchant ship will actually have to deal with boarding pirates. By adopting a sound tactical concept, ship operators can avoid falling into the mindset promoted by many maritime security experts who see a ship as a static target that needs to be armed accordingly.
 

Coast Watch South: Sealing the southern 'back door' in the Philippines

Dr. Peter Chalk

The security outlook is more positive in the Philippines where the government has implemented a new programme for maritime domain awareness. Dr. Peter Chalk from RAND looks at this programme and finds that, if certain challenges are overcome, it will form the basis of an integrated system of maritime security that ties together the three prominent littoral states in Southeast Asia: Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia.
 

Violence, security and protection in the Niger Delta

Risk Intelligence analysts

The Niger Delta region of Nigeria presents a complicated security picture. Risk Intelligence team looks at violence in the region and how it is underpinned by extensive economic connections between oil companies, communities and armed groups. Militias involved in piracy and extortion took advantage of the amnesty in 2009 and many groups were able to transition to bona fide security contractors. But the economic imperatives for violence have not been resolved, and the upcoming election in 2011 as well as a fragmentation of armed groups bodes ill for the region's future security environment.
 

A war of words over the South China Sea: Are merchant vessels safe?

Karsten von Hoesslin

Also prominent in the news at present is the escalating rhetoric between China and the US over the South China Sea. This has inevitably raised the spectre of military activity in the area and a possible threat to merchant shipping. Karsten von Hoesslin argues that there has never been a threat to merchant vessels and urges patience while the various claimants to the South China Sea resolve their own territorial disputes without outside, and Western, interference.
 

Strategic Insights No 25

South China Sea clustered piracy: The plot thickens...

Karsten von Hoesslin

Piracy in the southern South China Sea near the Anambas Islands is continuing in a cluster pattern, reinforcing the argument that a specific syndicate is responsible for the majority of incidents. In June 2010, similar incidents began occurring in clusters off the Natuna Islands to the east, suggesting that Anambas-orientated syndicates are extending their operational reach. Risk Intelligence Senior Analyst Karsten von
Hoesslin examines the recent incidents and explores the piracy cluster phenomenon in detail, identifying the major trends and operational developments.
 

West Africa's international drug trade: A maritime risk?

Prof. Stephen Ellis

The ”Highway 10” continues to be a major drug route for chemical narcotic shipments moving from South America to Europe via West Africa. In addition to being a major transit zone, narco-trafficking has gained significant attention within the past year due to allegations that terrorist networks such as Al Qaeda sub-groups are involved and benefiting from the lucrative drug trade. University of Amsterdam Professor Stephen Ellis examines the implications of the narcotics trade on the maritime sector and considers further the potential relationship between narco-trafficking groups and terrorist networks.
 

MaRisk feature analysis: Insurgency in Sri Lanka

Dr. Peter Chalk

The civil war and interlinked insurgency that embattled Sri Lanka appears to be over for the time being. After over thirty years of conflict, the government was able to defeat the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam and eradicate all remaining elements of the insurgent group on the island. In this issue’s MaRisk Feature Analysis, RAND Senior Policy Analyst Dr. Peter Chalk examines the status of Sri Lanka’s insurgency and the island’s future stability.
 

African Partnership Station: From global war on terrorism to grass-roots maritime security

Sebastian Bruns

The Africa Partnership Station has become the primary platform for US/African cooperation on both the humanitarian and maritime security front. The initiative seeks to strengthen maritime domain awareness through the guise of cooperation between African littoral states and the United States. In its short existence, the initiative is continuing to evolve and Risk Intelligence Assistant Analyst Sebastian Bruns analyses the African Partnership Station in order to assess its relationship to the war on terrorism as well as enhancing maritime security in Africa.
 

Strategic Insights No 24

Pinched, poached, and yet still performing: The transitional review & the attack on Harardhere

Karsten von Hoesslin and Stig Jarle Hansen

Piracy off the Horn of Africa continues and as the transitional period between the monsoon comes to a close, it is an ideal time to assess the latest developments both on land and at sea. Risk Intelligence Senior Analyst Karsten von Hoesslin examines the most recent operational trends and modus operandi, the counter piracy intiative at sea, and some of the developments on land. As a special contribution, Risk Intelligence Senior Analyst Dr. Stig Jarle Hansen examines in greater detail the fall of Harardhere and its long-term implications for pirate action groups.
 

Maritime security gaps: South Africa & the 2010 FIFA World Cup

Peter Chalk

The 2010 FIFA World Cup is to begin in South Africa on 11 June. Numerous questions arise about the nation’s prepardness to host the event for the first time on African soil, but also on security and safety. In addition to securing the cities and nine venues, Africa’s extensive coastline must also be given considerable attention. Senior Policy Analyst of the RAND Corporation Dr. Peter Chalk examines the maritime security component of FIFA 2010 in South Africa.
 

MaRisk feature analysis: Smuggling in North Asia - an evolving threat

Guy Wilson Roberts

Maritime smuggling throughout the world is of rising concern to both states and maritime supply chain stakeholders. A relatively unexplored area concerning published reports on smuggling is North Asia. Risk Intelligence Associate Senior Analyst Dr. Guy Wilson Roberts examines the role of smuggling in North Asia in this issue’s MaRisk Feature Analysis.
 

Gulf to remain prime theatre for Iranian deterrence

Heinrich Matthee

Despite a relative calm in the media, the Iran question lingers within both policy analysts minds as well as maritime security specialists. Iran’s maritime influence over the Persian and the Arabian Gulf remains considerable. Security risk analyst Dr. Heinrich Matthee examines Iran’s maritime activities and capabilities both within a regional maritime and geopolitical context.
 

Strategic Insights No 23

Piracy and its suppression in the Strait of Malacca and Gulf of Aden: A critical comparison

Piracy in the Strait of Malacca and in the Gulf of Aden is often compared whereby assumptions are made that counter-piracy initiatives implemented in South East Asia could easily be mirrored off the Horn of Africa. Research Fellow for the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, Dr. Stefan Eklöf Amirell, critically examines this theory by comparing the economic drivers and root causes in both regions to conclude that they are indeed very different areas requiring different prescriptions.
 

Illegal bunkering in Nigeria: A background and analysis

Illegal oil bunkering has become a common practice within Nigeria. It is not only a predominant criminal activity but the primary revenue stream for insurgent groups and criminal organisations. The consequence of illegal bunkering is a significant loss of revenue for the Nigerian state and fuels a culture of corruption throughout the various government and community branches. King’s College Research Associate Dr. Olawale Ismail examines the role that illegal bunkering plays in maritime security within Nigeria in this background analysis.
 

MaRisk feature analysis: Piracy in Indonesia, a declining threat?

It was not long ago when Indonesia was the global hotspot for piracy and armed sea robbery. Piracy, however, decreased significantly whilst incident reporting has increased considerably boosting transparency and suggesting a general improvement of security in Indonesia’s maritime domain. Associate Senior Analyst Dr. Guy Wilson Roberts examines the current activities and developments within the Indonesian archipelago in this issue’s MaRisk Feature Analysis.
 

Evaluating the ISPS Code amidst complex and evolving threats to maritime security (Part II)

It has been nearly six years since the implementation of the International Ship and Port Security Facility (ISPS) Code and the debate of its utility continues. Stowaway activities, narcotics and weapons trafficking, and various forms of armed sea robbery were initially targeted and declined after the implementation of ISPS. However, there is little evidence to suggest that ISPS measures are reducing stowaway movements and trafficking activities both within port facilities and at sea. Risk Intelligence Consultant, Rupert Herbert Burns examines these challenges with reference to the ISPS Code in a two-part series ending in this issue.
 

Strategic Insights No 22

The Cabinda conflict: A new Gulf of Guinea-style insurgency in the making?

Peter Chalk

The tiny but oil-rich Angolan enclave of Cabinda was catapulted into the spotlight in January as militants ambushed the Togo national football team during the African cup of Nations. Within the editorial, RAND Senior Policy Analyst Dr. Peter Chalk, examines the implications of the remerging insurgency movement within Cabinda and the potential for it to become a Niger Delta-style campaign whereby oil exploration and coastal security could be jeopardised.
 

The 8 February Sabah kidnappings and potential implications for the region

Karsten von Hoesslin

Returning to the east coast of Borneo, two Chinese businessmen were kidnapped from a seaweed farm on 8 February in the wake of the American travel advisory in January. Suspicions continue as to whether the Philippine terrorist group Abu Sayyaf was behind the incident as the region continues to witness various illegal maritime activities. Risk Intelligence Senior Analyst Karsten von Hoesslin explores in depth the implications of the incident for both Malaysia, Philippines, and the region in general through the lenses of a basic kidnapping and the more potentially consequential act by Abu Sayyaf.

 

MaRisk feature analysis: The Niger Delta insurgency - into the next round

Dirk Steffen

Developments within the Niger Delta continue to unfold as the militants grapple with the Nigerian government both in the creeks as well as at the negotiating table. The implications continue to affect the operations of maritime traffic and inshore/offshore oil operations. Risk Intelligence Director of Consulting, Dirk Steffen, examines the recent militant and criminal activities within the Niger Delta in this issue’s MaRisk Analysis Feature.
 

Evaluating the ISPS Code amidst complex and evolving threats to maritime security

Rupert Herbert-Burns

It has been nearly six years since the implementation of the International Ship and Port Security Facility (ISPS) Code and the debate of its utility continues. Stowaway activities, narcotics and weapons trafficking, and various forms of armed sea robbery were initially targeted and declined after the implementation of ISPS. However, there is little evidence to suggest that ISPS measures are reducing stowaway movements and trafficking activities both within port facilities and at sea. Risk Intelligence Consultant, Rupert Herbert Burns examines these challenges with reference to the ISPS Code in a two-part series starting in this issue.
 

Strategic Insights No 21

On alert: Elevating maritime security in eastern Sabah

Sumathy Permal

The waters off eastern Sabah state (Malaysia) made international headlines as the United States Embassy in Kuala Lumpur issued a travel advisory for the remote area. Fearing a repeat of the 2000 Sipadan kidnappings and subsequent criminal and insurgent activity, the region has been placed on high alert. Malaysian Institute for Maritime Affairs Researcher, Dr. Sumathy Permal, examines why the security alert may have been issued and how the Malaysian security services are responding to the advisory.

 

In the wake of disaster: How the Haiti earthquake is likely to redefine the notion of port security

Tim Martin

Catastrophe struck the impoverished Caribbean island-nation of Haiti, with one of the strongest earthquakes the region has ever experienced. In response, the international community has launched one of the largest-ever rescue operations with emphasis on the sea. The severe damage to Port-au-Prince port has created additional challenges for relief efforts and the security of foreign aid and shipping. In the wake of the natural disaster, port security is likely to be redefined particularly in developing nations in order to contingency plan for not just conventional security threats, but natural ones as well. PhD Candidate Timothy Martin assesses the security situation and post-quake environment in Haiti.
 

MaRisk feature analysis: Smuggling in Somalia - weapons, charcoal and toxic waste

Stig Jarle Hansen

In addition to piracy and the escalating threat of insurgency, Somalia is also plagued by rampant smuggling. The level of smuggling has in fact become so severe that it is a crucial common practice for access to basic needs for the survival of the Somali people. The MaRisk Feature Analysis examines the various levels of smuggling within the extensive coastlines of northern, central, and southern Somalia where Senior Analyst Dr. Stig Jarle Hansen explores the threat of smuggling and particularly the illegal trade in weapons, charcoal, and toxic waste within Somalia.
 

An evaluation of ReCAAP

Karsten von Hoesslin

It has been over three years since the ReCAAP initiative was established in order to enhance the security of Asia Pacific waters at the government-to-government level. Senior Analyst Karsten von Hoesslin returns to the subject of assessing ReCAAP’s performance since its inception. Within its first 40 months, the organization has navigated through the occasional hurdle and made headway whilst calming the seas of cooperation along the way.