Strategic Insights No 37
Counter-piracy strategies in South East Asia: Myth versus reality
Karsten von Hoesslin
This issue of Strategic Insights is a special edition on piracy in South East Asia. The first article examines counter-piracy initiatives and some of the myths around piracy/armed sea robbery in the region. It also assesses some of the key counter-piracy operations conducted by the ideal agency tasked to improve maritime security. Piracy and armed sea robbery is an interlinked part of organised crime and in order to effectively combat it, an agency/organisation must be able to address more than just the tactic of piracy.
Piracy & armed sea robbery: Group dynamics and geographical patterns
Karsten von Hoesslin
The connection between piracy in the Singapore Strait and off the Anambas Islands is covered in the second article by a detailed network analysis of the groups involved. Based on first-hand research, extensive coverage of group composition, tactics, and geographical operating areas is provided, as well as how they respond to enforcement tactics. The analysis demonstrates significant linkages to organised crime beyond simple piracy and armed sea robbery as well as wider networks at various levels of influence throughout the region.
Getting tugged: Hijackings in the southern South China Sea
Karsten von Hoesslin
The third article covers one of the most unique trends within the region: hijackings that often involve tugs. In addition to the cluster piracy phenomenon, the hijacking of tugboats has gained a significant amount of attention since 2010 in South East Asia. This tactic has been ongoing for some time and typically involves not just the pirates but wider linkages to organised crime to help facilitate the hijacking and the re-sale of the tug. This article also touches on some of the smuggling operations in the region.
Forecasting and trends: Guidelines for anti-piracy measures
Karsten von Hoesslin
A forecasting pattern for piracy off the Anambas Islands based on activity in previous seasons and current operational patterns is the subject of the final article. Although the pirate group involved has changed its modus operandi, it is an ideal tool should attacks increase again within the next transitional period. A forecasting model must also be adapted by reporting agencies in the region in order to better facilitate and coordinate alerts off the Anambas Islands to forewarn shipowners and vessels when the area is active.
Strategic Insights No 36
Feeding the crocodile: A military solution to Somali piracy
Sjoerd J.J. Both
Despite a recent fall in the hijacking success rate for Somali pirates, piracy remains a major threat off the Horn of Africa. The first article in this issue looks at a military solution to the threat and challenges the idea that Somali piracy can only be countered by an all-encompassing approach that will ‘fix’ Somalia. The article argues that the alternative to ‘feeding the crocodile’ is to give more prominence to military action and provides a formatted planning structure to do so.
Operation ATALANTA at three: A success or failure?
Sebastian Bruns
Naval forces have been in action for some time in the Indian Ocean and the second article in this issue discusses the three-year anniversary of Operation ATALANTA, consisting of naval forces from the European Union (EU). Successes as well as shortcomings are identified. Concerns remain that as long as European resources continue to be strained by the financial and economic crises, and an austere defence budget cycle, the number of warships in the area is constrained by national caveats.
Domestic terrorism in Nigeria: Assessing the threat
Risk Intelligence Analysts
In the first of two articles on current threats, analysts from Risk Intelligence review that threat of domestic terrorism in Nigeria, focusing on the Islamic-based group Boko Haram. The group has captured international headlines with its bomb attacks, used to foment instability and increase ethno-religious tensions. There are specific geographical risk areas, largely in the north of the country, but there is a risk that Boko Haram will be able to stage isolated attacks in the south-west as well.
Budding and blooming: The Arab Spring and security in Syria and Libya
Risk Intelligence analysts
The final article in this issue provides an update on Syria and Libya. Despite the widespread protests in Syria, there are big questions to answer as to the opposition’s organisation, unity of purpose, strength and ability to overturn the Assad regime. It seems any change of government is still some way off but maritime operations in the country are for now largely unaffected. In contrast, at least in the country’s ports, the situation in Libya is stabilising after its civil war. The National Transitional Council will need much domestic and international support to establish effective governance and there are a number of worst-case scenarios for the future.
Strategic Insights No 35
The ‘failed flotilla’ and security in the Levant
John Corner
Security in the Levant is in a state of flux, with maritime implications for the eastern Mediterranean. Alongside the fallout from the so-called ‘failed flotilla’, there are a number of areas of uncertainty, from Israeli-Turkish relations to the long-term impacts of the Arab Spring to questions of Palestinian statehood (and the Gaza blockade, which the flotilla was supposed to break). But, ultimately, the region’s thirst for maintaining security amid difficult circumstances should not be underestimated.
Current changes in the clan affiliations of Somali pirates
Stig Jarle Hansen
Somalia is never far from the news and two articles in this issue look at the larger piracy picture. The first article outlines changing clan dynamics and how this affects pirate basing options and where pirates will operate in the Indian Ocean. As pirate operations come increasingly under international naval pressure, there may be more ‘multi-clanism’ – cooperation between different clans involved in piracy.
Kidnappings in Kenya: Al Shebab’s new direction in maritime crime?
M. Mubarak
In the second article, two recent kidnappings by sea from Kenya has again thrown the spotlight on the involvement of Somalia’s Al Shebab in maritime activities. The Shebab has been cultivating relations with pirates (and taxing them) in the areas it controls. This article attempts to lift the veil on assessing the Shebab’s involvement and the extent to which is may be pursuing new fundraising avenues. The group may well be expanding its maritime operations but remains wary of increased foreign military involvement.
The Arab springboard: Illegal migration routes across the Mediterranean
Robert Snoddon
The final article in this issue returns to the Mediterranean and considers the impact of the Arab Spring on illegal migration in the region. There has been a shift in migration patterns, with Libya emerging as a recent concern. As European countries have clamped down, NGOs point to serious humanitarian side effects of this restrictive policy approach. Despite the political relevance of the phenomenon, assessments on the size of the irregular migrant population are often vague and unclear of origin.
Strategic Insights No 34
Maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea: Regional response emerging
Valentin Laqueste
The Gulf of Guinea is an area of growing concern, but regional countries are already increasing their cooperation to address local threats. A detailed look at this cooperation suggests that security will be improved in the short and medium terms. A truly regional response, however, may prove to be only possible in the longer term.
Organised crime in the maritime shipping and ports industry
Thomas Horn Hansen
Organised crime is often overlooked as a maritime security threat. But organised crime presents its own unique risks, including racketeering, smuggling and cargo theft. It is also often involved in other security threats, such as piracy, or may be an enabler for insurgency groups or kidnap & ransom operations. This article provides an update on the conceptual and practical work that Risk Intelligence is doing on the intersection between organised crime and other threats.
Yemen: Political crisis and implications for maritime security
Siris Hartkorn
The first of two articles in this issue on the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden analyses the current state of affairs in Yemen, a country that could be close to political collapse. With a long maritime border, particularly on the Gulf of Aden, the prospect of regional autonomy has a number of potential implications for maritime security. State security capabilities may decline further, but this does not necessarily mean that high-risk groups such as Al Qaeda will be able to operate with impunity as local tribal structures exercise a high level of control.
Threats, prospects and trends in Eritrean-Yemeni waters
Dr. Awet Weldemichael
The second article looks at the maritime boundary dispute between Yemen and Eritrea and provides the background to this dispute and a warning on the increasing militarisation of the area. Yemen and Eritrea both have patrol capabilities for dealing with threats such as piracy, but their fragile state-to-state relations leads to instability. As a complicating factor, fishing disputes complicate regional relations further, with the practices of the fishing fleets also proving to be unsettling for commercial vessels operating in these waters.
Strategic Insights No 33
Ropes and ladders: The latest Somali tactic in the piracy game?
Karsten von Hoesslin
Despite the number of hijackings that have taken place by Somali pirates off the Horn of Africa, boarding a merchant ship underway using the typical pirate ladder is no easy feat. In a recent development in the region, pirates used a different boarding configuration more commonly seen in South East Asia. The proliferation of this boarding tactic would impose consequences for merchant vessels and require amendments within best management practices factoring the differing boarding tactics.
Rules of engagement and self-defence: Separate but inseparable
Sjoerd Both
While pirate tactics have no set rules, naval forces operating in the region are typically governed by strict rules of engagement that cover the use of force. As the shipping industry has had little involvement with the application of force, a better understanding of these rules and self-defence issues might help the shipping industry to better plan and conduct merchant vessel self-defence against pirate attack.
Armed security: New tactics, new challenges, same debate?
Karsten von Hoesslin
As a follow up to the article in Strategic Insights 32 on the subject of armed guards on board merchant vessels, this article looks at some of the issues from the perspective of the providers of these services. There are challenges in securing appropriately trained personnel, as well as dealing with the evolution of pirate tactics. Ultimately, It is up to the shipowner to ensure that the most professional company is selected while taking into account economies of scale and cost effectiveness.
Mexico’s narco-insurgency and maritime security
Guy Wilson-Roberts
This article shifts geographic location and considers the growing power of drug cartels in Mexico and the potential for the insecurity affecting Mexico as part of the so-called war on drugs impacting on the maritime sector in the region. With the cartels diversifying their operations, shifting into more political roles, and wanting to test the sovereign power of the Mexican state, this conflict has the potential to become a greater maritime security threat in the future.
Strategic Insights No 32
India: Bad cop in a predicament?
Karsten von Hoesslin
In the latest twist to the evolution of Somali piracy, a hijacked vessel was released in April 2011 with only half its crew, the remainder – Indian nationals – held back by the pirates as a possible bargaining tool against India's robust counter-piracy strategy. This article assesses the pirates' motivations, and outlines four possible responses from India. Some in the shipping community have applauded India's strategy to date, but now the strategy is under pressure.
Private security companies and counter-piracy: Pros and cons
Peter Chalk
Armed guards on board ships are being deployed by ship operators as protection against piracy but the policy is controversial as well as potentially problematic. Maritime insurance companies have often welcomed armed guards and certain firms have slashed premiums for ships hiring their own security. On the other hand, numerous legal questions and uncertainties surround their employment and their use could backfire by exposing commercial vessels and their crews to greater levels of violence from pirates.
Black Sea energy security: Cooperation and conflict
Maria Kottari
The transportation of oil products helps build regional cooperation among the Black Sea states, but it also animates existing political conflicts. The military tensions in August 2008 between Russia and Georgia proved that energy infrastructures are part of the so-called “pipeline battle”. Land-based and maritime routes are now countering Russia's influence and enhancing Turkey's regional role, highlighting the changing geopolitical dynamic.
Energy development and security prospects in the Eastern Mediterranean
John Corner
The discovery of natural gas off Israel has boosted its energy security. But Israel’s initial buoyancy is threatened to be subsumed by security fears in the region, already beset with political unrest and issues surrounding maritime border demarcations. If border disputes at either pole of Israel erupt into skirmishes, then the targeting of energy amenities will become a real possibility.
Strategic Insights No 31
Countering Somali piracy: It takes two to tango
Sjoerd J.J. Both
As piracy off the Horn of Africa continues seemingly unabated, solutions for bolstering merchant vessel defences have taken on a greater urgency for ship operators. Based on his experience as deputy commander CTF-151, the author sees the cooperation model established by naval deployments in the region as a blueprint for future Maritime Security Operations that could also be used to improve the situational awareness of merchant vessels.
The Japan Coast Guard: Japan’s “hidden navy”?
Tetsuo Kotani
Sometimes seen as Japan’s “hidden navy” due to its vessels and capabilities, Tetsuo Kotani argues that the Japan Coast Guard has strictly a policing function, although a broad range of responsibilities. It is under pressure, though, as maritime border disputes in the region are highlighting a number of shortfalls, particularly its legal framework.
Drugs, ships and containers: How anti-terrorism benefits shipping security
Timothy A. Martin
Measures put in place in the name of anti-terrorism have benefitted maritime supply chain security in terms of drug smuggling via shipping containers. While there has been a steady increase in detection rates through these measures, drug traffickers remain resilient and adaptable. The sheer volume of container traffic, and the relatively low rates of inspections, means that legitimate maritime commercial activity remains under pressure from drug smuggling.
Smuggling in South East Asia: Dynamically fluid
Karsten von Hoesslin
In South East Asia, with different smuggled commodities seen as particular priorities by the law enforcement agencies in the region, there is no common response to the risks so progress cannot be made until some common ground is found. Although not comparable to piracy and armed sea robbery in the region, and not a significant risk to merchant shipping, smuggling does have implications for intra-regional maritime traffic.
Strategic Insights No 30
Forecasting the future: Perils and predictions
Guy Wilson-Roberts
This issue presents Risk Intelligence's maritime security barometer for the year ahead with a series of articles on the principal maritime security risk areas around the world. Forecasting the future can be a problematic process, but by identifying certain factors and trends in different locations we can at least start to see where the storm clouds might be gathering.
Somali piracy in 2011: An evolution rather than a revolution
Nis Leerskov Mathiesen
2010 may not have been a revolutionary year for piracy in the region, but a continuation of well-established dynamics - which will flow into 2011 and with a resolution of the situation unlikely in the short term. Included is this article is a review of onshore developments in central Somalia, as well as a wider threat assessment for East Africa.
Election violence and maritime security in the Niger Delta
Thomas Horn Hansen and Dirk Steffen
Nigeria will also be at the forefront of maritime security considerations in 2011. With the conclusion of elections in April this year, there is likely to be a upswing in the number of attacks as candidate funding to armed groups dries up. As has been the case so far, the tanker and offshore sectors will bear the brunt of this upswing.
South East Asia's dynamic maritime threat environment
Karsten von Hoesslin
In South East Asia, it is unlikely that 2011 will be very different from 2010 in terms of the quantity and quality of piracy and armed sea robbery incidents in the region. Despite increase law enforcement, the primary obstacle to reducing piracy in the region is the jurisdictional abuse by syndicates and their fluid and dynamic ability to quickly reposition themselves intra-regionally.