Strategic Insights No 43
Revising the Horn of Africa High Risk Area
Nis Leerskov Mathiesen & Risk Intelligence analysts
With the apparent decline of pirate activity, the designation of a high risk area is under scrutiny. But reducing a warning area has its own implications and challenges. In this article Risk Intelligence’s staff outlines a framework for assessing threat and risk in the particular context of Somali piracy. Risk Intelligence’s reduction of its MaRisk Horn of Africa High Risk Area is discussed with a breakdown of the Horn of Africa sub-areas, each with their own individual characteristics.
Supply chain security in the extractive industry
Charles Dumbrille
Using the example of the extractive industry, the article looks at possible disruptions to the supply chain, covering physical threats to transport networks as well as the less obvious – corruption and target activism. Total security is difficult but not impossible. It requires a high level of commitment and coordination. Ultimately, in the extractive industry, it is supply chains that compete, rather than the individual businesses themselves.
Sierra Leone and Liberia: Ports and maritime security on West Africa’s new frontier
Kieran Mitton
The ports of Sierra Leone and Liberia are gaining in importance to West African maritime traffic as their economic output increases. Iron ore production in particular is driving economic recovery in both countries. Piracy is currently a limited issue for Sierra Leone and Liberia, but both countries are in need of improving their maritime domain awareness and port security. Risk Intelligence analyst Kieran Mitton examines prospects and challenges for ports in the two countries, maritime security challenges and likely developments in local capabilities.
Tanzania collapsing? Maritime risks and the Tanganyika-Zanzibar conflict
Dr. Stig Jarle Hansen
Tanzania faces the political challenge of a possible succession by Zanzibar, and Stig Jarle Hansen from Risk Intelligence covers this issue and five possible scenarios for how this challenge will play out in the future are described. Some sort of devolution seems the most likely, with a minimal impact on the maritime sector. But there are underlying tensions involved that could be important for regional maritime security, particularly as the process is likely to capture the attention of neighbours such as Kenya and other players such as the US.
Strategic Insights No 42
A ban on ransoms will only hurt seafarers
Jay Bahadur
In this editorial article, Jay Bahadur, author of The Pirates of Somalia, looks at recent efforts to start a law-making process that would ban pirate ransom payments, beginning in the UK. Considering all the issues, Bahadur argues that not only would a ransom ban run directly contrary to UK policy, it would be impractical, impossible to implement, lacking in credibility, and morally irresponsible to the hundreds of seafarers still held captive by Somali pirates. He concludes that until governments are able to protect their citizens at sea, or else find means to safely and consistently secure their release, paying ransoms – however unappetising – should remain a legal option for shipowners.
The fall of Kismayo: Consequences for Somalia and the wider region
Dr. Stig Jarle Hansen
Somalia has been in the news recently following the Kenyan-led offensive to take the port city of Kismayo from al-Shabab. Risk Intelligence’s Stig Jarle Hansen looks behind the scenes of the military operation and finds an important clan dynamic at play. With defeat in Kismayo, Hansen also considers the future of al-Shabab. The organisation will likely shift operations to an insurgency in the south and will not be defeated in the countryside. Future stability in Somalia’s cities, like Mogadishu, will depend on whether the government can continue to pay its army and police forces. Of concern, though, is al-Shabab’s apparent intention to morph into an East African organisation, rather than a purely Somali group, which has wider implications.
Insurgency and amnesty in the Niger Delta: Background and outlook
Risk Intelligence analysts
Moving to West Africa, this article provides a background to insurgency in Nigeria. Alliances and loyalties have been shifting among the militant groups, creating a picture of some complexity. The amnesty programme introduced by the Nigerian government has been largely successful. Although, with money at the heart of the programme, there is plenty of potential for disaffection among the groups that have been left out. There is no obvious leader to unite opposition factions, but it is among the disaffected rank-and-file that new threats could emerge. These would likely be focused on onshore and offshore kidnap-and-ransom as well as armed robberies directed at local traffic in the creeks and offshore vessels.
Terrorism threats in North Africa: Algeria, Tunisia and Libya
Risk Intelligence analysts
This article shifts focus to North Africa and gives an overview of the terrorism situation in Libya, Algeria and Tunisia. With the regime changes following the so-called Arab spring, the local scene is in flux. Older ‘terrorist’ groups are now occupying the same space as new players, often uniting under new banners, and this article describes the various groups. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) remains the main terrorist threat in the region and as a group it continues to thrive in and impact on both Algeria and Tunisia. It will also likely attempt to exploit the current situation in Libya as the new government establishes internal security. A clearer picture of the implications for regional maritime security has yet to emerge.
Strategic Insights No 41
Political instability and deteriorating maritime security in Yemen
Siris Hartkorn
The first article in this issue recounts recent developments in Yemen and suggests that political instability is leaving room for maritime terrorism to emerge. Most players are more interested in other goals, but do have the operational capacity and incentive to launch attacks. Possible targets include offshore infrastructure where the impact on Yemen’s political process and infrastructure would be severe.
Slow steaming in the Indian Ocean
Dirk Steffen and Akis Meletiadis
Also of regional interest is the policy adopted by some shipowners of saving fuel by slow steaming. Modelling done for ships in the Indian Ocean showed that speed is the single most effective measure that ships can deploy to resist a boarding attempt by pirates. As well, early detection of threats offers a larger window to increase speed and take other defensive measures.
Colombia’s ‘narco-submersibles’: Evolution and future prospects
Jorge Eduardo Delgado
The third article discusses the evolution of the semi-submersible as a means of trafficking cocaine from Colombia. Since their emergence in 2006, interdiction rates by law enforcement have been increasing. But the traffickers can still access materials and skilled personnel to construct and crew these vessels, and they are constantly changing their strategies and deploying new technologies.
Piracy on the rise in Guayaquil
Craig Corl
Piracy is on the rise in Guayaquil, Ecuador and this article analyses the threat. It finds that the specific nature of the threat means that certain countermeasures can be deployed with a high likelihood of success. With a number of contributing factors at play, however, the threat itself is likely to remain persistent.
The regional security impact of the insurgency in northern Mali
Kieran Mitton
Recent and ongoing political developments in Mali are raising concerns and the final article in this issue assesses their wider regional maritime impact. Developments are fluid and mainly focused on remote inland areas. But involvement from regional countries through ECOWAS raises the possibility of retaliatory maritime.
Strategic Insights No 40
Organised crime in ports and the ISPS Code: Where to now?
Timothy A. Martin
Organised crime is a persistent threat to business continuity in numerous ports around the world. The first article in this issue considers counterterrorism efforts under the ISPS Code and whether the tools in the Code have been effective against organised crime. Despite fears of collusion, organised criminal groups rely on the regular functioning of maritime commerce to hide their illegal activities. To date, though, the focus on terrorism has prevented a holistic approach to port security that effectively targets organised crime.
Maritime drug trafficking in the Western Hemisphere: Strategies and trends
Craig Corl
Drug smuggling is one such component of organised crime. The second article in this issue looks at the evolution of drug smuggling in the Caribbean and South American regions. This ‘Western Hemisphere’ trafficking involves groups that are flexible and can change tactics once law enforcement and other pressures come into play. Recently, there has been a new focus on routes through Central America to the US, as well as the use of semi-submersible craft. Going forward, new vulnerabilities in law enforcement and security are likely to be exploited.
Benin and Togo: Current maritime capabilities - Senegal: Regime stability and maritime security
Risk Intelligence analysts
The West African region is currently at the forefront of maritime security concerns and two reports analyse recent developments of interest. Firstly, last year saw an upswing in attacks in the Bight of Benin against tanker vessels in particular, forcing Benin and Togo to take more of an interest in their maritime security. Despite their efforts, interest from companies in the area in private security is growing. Secondly, the recent election in Senegal is covered. The country wants to develop its offshore resources. Although challenges remain, the peaceful transfer of power in the elections earlier this year bodes well.
Cargo theft in Northern Europe: Profiles, risks and countermeasures
Risk Intelligence analysts
The final article in this issue returns to port security and covers the threat of cargo theft in Europe. The analysis finds that theft along the supply chain in Northern Europe will continue to be a problem in the short to medium term. Law enforcement efforts are being stepped up, such as the recent FreightPol initiative between European countries. But the main cost to the industry, however, will be the inflated insurance costs resulting from existing levels of cargo theft.
Strategic Insights No 39
AQIM: A credible maritime threat?
Dario Cristiani
Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) grabbed the headlines recently with an apparent plot to target Western shipping in the Mediterranean, bringing to mind the terrorist attacks against the LIMBURG in 2002 off the coast of Yemen and the M STAR in 2011 in the Persian Gulf. In recounting the background and tactics of AQIM, this article finds a group rooted in classical jihadist tactics as well as kidnappings and other revenue gathering activities. In this context, therefore, the maritime threat posed by AQIM is tempered by wider considerations.
The disputed Aegean: Hydrocarbons prospecting in the Eastern Mediterranean
Maria Kottari
States dominate the security picture in the Mediterranean, but there are sources of instability in their relations. This article looks at the disputed maritime boundaries in the Aegean. As well as national pride, national wealth is at stake with hydrocarbons a lucrative source of revenue. Relations between Greece and Turkey include a history of disagreement and the current contretemps, with Cyprus in the middle as well, has wider regional repercussions.
The territorial and maritime dispute between Japan and China in the East China Sea
Paul O’Shea
Boundaries and hydrocarbons are also at the centre of a delimitation dispute in North East Asia between China and Japan. This article reviews the apparent ‘deep freeze’ in relations between the two following a maritime incident in 2010. The dispute centres on the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands and is one of the sites in the region where larger geo-political issues are being played out (the South China Sea being another). While it is a notable diplomatic dispute, the article concludes that serious military conflict over the islands is unlikely due to the regional balance of power in play.
The evolution of drug trafficking in West Africa
Kieran Mitton
Drug trafficking is often seen as a non-traditional security threat outside of the realm of state-to-state diplomacy. This may be the case, but this article suggests that drug trafficking in West Africa has undermined in some cases the ability of regional governments to uniformly enforce maritime and port security frameworks. The region is vulnerable to exploitation by criminal networks and this article covers the wider implications for maritime security in the area on a case-by-case basis. On the positive side, the longer-term trend may be towards greater regional cooperation to deal with the threat.
Strategic Insights No 38
Rough weather ahead? Understanding maritime security forecasting
Guy Wilson-Roberts
Strategic Insights begins 2012 with its forecast issue for the year ahead. Forecasting is an imprecise science, as the first article in this issue discusses. But we still have a range of tools available for managing risks, even if there are some surprises in store.
A gradual decline: Somali piracy in 2011 and the year ahead
Nis Leerskov Mathiesen
One surprise in 2011 was the decline in piracy success rates off Somalia. This article provides a detailed assessment of this decline and analyses a number of factors contributing to this development. While there is room for some cautious optimism, there is also the risk of complacency.
Nigeria forecast: A new focus on security
Risk Intelligence Analysts
The last 12 months saw a change in the nature of piracy off Nigeria with the targeting of tanker vessels. This trend may already be coming to an end, although many security challenges – such as the Boko Haram insurgency – remain in the region.
A transforming year: Political change and risk in North Africa
Risk Intelligence Analysts
The Arab spring uprisings were a major development in 2011 with implications for the whole region. In North Africa, with power vacuums emerging as governments are in flux, there is room for non-state actors such as terrorist groups to operate more freely.
Egypt, Syria and security in the Eastern Mediterranean
Risk Intelligence Analysts
In Egypt and Syria, despite governments and militaries coming more to the fore, uncertainty around transition processes creates its own risks. As this article outlines, terrorist groups in the region have not disappeared. Syria is a potential hotspot with future developments dependent on wider geopolitical considerations.
The Persian Gulf: Terrorism and the return of state power
Risk Intelligence Analysts
In the Persian Gulf, another power vacuum with the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq is also creating concerns. Also of pressing interest are the bellicose statements emerging from Iran, in the context of its relations with the West and also with the Gulf States in the area. As always, the Strait of Hormuz is a focal point for maritime security considerations.
Two threat scenarios in North East Asia
Risk Intelligence Analysts
North Asia typically has a stable maritime security environment. But with a leadership change in North Korea, and unresolved regional disputes over maritime boundaries, these are two scenarios worth considering that could see tensions escalate and move quickly to a higher threat level. This article covers how these could evolve.